“US shale oil: the day of reckoning will come.”. Shale oil has been getting cheaper and cheaper, indeed. Low gas and electricity prices for the industry. Upon publishing this paper the site shaleprofile.com (by my fellow Dutchman Enno Peters) was brought to my attention. The real reckoning will come when both parties understand how far they’ve drifted from the American people and then begin to lead with humility. I am curious about long term future fracking advances. Fracking can be done safely – but I think we can not accommodate US levels of activities in densely populated areas in Western Europe. Jilles van den Beukel worked as geologist, geophysicist and project manager and lastly as Principal Geoscientist for Shell in many parts of the world. Fracking advances (equipment, techniques, big data, etc) is, if anything, accelerating and there are areas in the Permian basin that are profitable at $30 a barrel. The drop in the rig count has picked up again and the 2016 drop in shale oil production could be greater than the 0.6 million barrel/day 2015 drop. Firstly, shale oil requires continuous drilling as the production of wells declines rapidly (with typically about 50-60 % of production during the first year of production). Hedging contributed to over 30% of revenue in US shale oil in 2015. Bill Bonner By Bill Bonner Posted September 22, 2017, President Trump sinks into the swamp. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/electric-cars-and-the-coal-that-runs-them/2015/11/23/74869240-734b-11e5-ba14-318f8e87a2fc_story.html, https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=92&pid=46&aid=2, https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=91&pid=46&aid=31, https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/New-Fracking-Technology-To-Bring-Huge-Supplies-Of-Oil-And-Gas-To-The-Market.html, SMEs key to Europe’s decarbonisation efforts, New Berkeley Lab Report Documents Trends in System Impacts, Reliability and Market Value of Solar in the United States, A people-powered energy system: activating the community energy market for bioenergy, Five countries to become the field of behavioural experiments to encourage energy efficiency habits, EU, U.S. exploring new sources of Rare Earth Minerals, should China limit exports, CCUS “gasphilic” process could double the conversion rate of CO2 into useful fuels, World’s biggest Steel manufacturers are committing to Hydrogen and CCS, A new EU Gas Market must expose it to all clean energy solutions, not just gas-on-gas, Clean Trucks are coming: a review of battery, hydrogen, synthetic fuels and more, A marketplace for energy data will enable Europe’s grid expansion, Decarbonising Industry is key to China’s net-zero strategy, EU Taxonomy: Gas as a transition fuel needs Green Deal support too, Germany’s Renewable Energy Act 2021: how to implement the fine policy detail of emissions reduction targets. Wide variations in National Energy and Climate Plans: how can the EU seriously budget for emissions reductions? By James RickardsPosted February 22, 2021, Triffin’s Dilemma and the Great Reset… 2009 was just a warm up act for the IMF and SDRs…, By James Howard KunstlerPosted February 20, 2021. Will the truth really make you free?… “The time to go big is now”… When debt stops being productive, and starts being destructive…, By James RickardsPosted February 16, 2021, A game of musical chairs… Read the fine print before investing in silver ETFs… Interest rates are another tailwind for silver…, By Charles Hugh SmithPosted February 13, 2021. The credibility of all this central-bank-dominated, Wall-Street-coddling policy will be totally repudiated, and maybe then we can clean the slate and start over.”. This peak oil rubbish is way past it’s sell by date. There, I expect that we have now reached a plateau and that shale oil is as competitive as it can possibly be (at least in the short term). Individual shale oil producers perhaps not. The Greek Cypriot leadership must come to its senses. Green Taxonomy: finding the right balance [Energy Post event video]. Personally, I find this to be the key issue. Frackers also need to realize that the possibility that if Hillary or Bernie are elected,it could prove disastrous for them.The EPA has been ruinous under Obama and with another Democrat giving them free rein the EPA will go after frackers with both barrels blazing.Pray someone else is elected to stop this nosedive from 30 thousand feet. EIA monthly drilling reports suggest that the added production per Bakken rig is about to reach a plateau. The only question is how…, Three principal drivers powering the third major bull market in gold…, Are diamonds a big scam? A very informative article, thank-you. The international hydrocarbon industry has been equal to the challenge of production in very difficult terrain: Arctic, Jungles, deserts etc. I think the worst thing about European emission policies is that it has spent an enormous amount of money with very little to show for in terms of reduction of global CO2 emissions in the short term. The best areas with a break-even oil price below $30 per barrel are very small, however (about 1% of the total Bakken area) and are already starting to deplete. The day of reckoning may be postponed but one day it will come. Environmentally, the sheer amount of activities and the size of the environmental footprint (many drilling locations, a lot of heavy transport) will make this very difficult in densely populated Western Europe. I do not think there is an impending shale collapse. Few bankruptcies have materialised so far but share prices have gone down significantly (often by as much as 90%). For the day of the LORD of hosts Shall come upon everything proud and lofty, Upon everything lifted up— And it shall be brought low— New American Standard Bible For the LORD of armies will have a day of reckoning Against everyone who is arrogant and haughty, And against everyone who is lifted up, That he may be brought low. It’s just amazing that us Americans who thumbed their noses at the Kyoto Protocols, now emit far fewer particulates than Europeans, with their bizarre aversion to fracking, their love of Volkswagen diesels, and of course heavy use of U.S. coal and wood pellets coming through Rotterdam. Secondly, shale oil requires the drilling and fracking of many wells that are very similar in design. They have a stronger political incentive (reduce dependency on Russian gas) and in less populated areas it will be easier to accomodate a large environmental footprint. I really appreciate your thoughtful replies. Stop being threatened by it, and embrace the changes, good and bad. Shale oil producers and their financiers are trying to sit out the current low oil price world – something that is becoming increasingly more difficult. I do agree there should be a place for limited activity / limited footprint fracking activity in Western Europe. Filed Under: *, Energy, Oil, Gas & Coal Tagged With: energy trade, financing, natural gas, oil, shale gas, unconventionals, US energy policy. No additional money is flowing into the US shale industry but the existing money has not been (and cannot be) taken out. Jim Rickards’ chief investment strategist, Dan Amoss, shows you why silver could actually outperform gold in the months and years to come. Really usefull! The day of reckoning has come. Both parties have a few things that need to be reckoned with if they want to connect to and reflect the mind of … This article was first published on his blog Jilles on Energy and is republished here with permission from the author. 16+2 sentence examples: 1. Bankers may try to reassure us, claiming that the importance of the energy industry to the overall economy has diminished and that moreover these loans are backed by assets. Bill Bonner shows you why America is going broke… and nobody cares…, Donald Trump opens the floodgates on $317 billion of debt. The record will be straight." Men of the Year. Here’s Bill Bonner on why the issue of Civil War statues goes…, By James Rickards Posted February 22, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 16, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 11, 2021, The Keystone XL pipeline is more environmentally friendly than current oil and gas transportation… Now the Federal Reserve is trying to regulate…, The coronavirus could take a big chunk out of first-quarter U.S. GDP…, The optimistic case for the stock market… “In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. Aprender más. Production declined later and less than expected. Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be Silenced. Jilles, you made that clear upfront and the only concern would be if you’re regularly consuming space cakes. End of Cinema: The Day of Reckoning Will Come. This means that the day of reckoning has come for many in the prophetic movement. By David Stockman day of reckoning Significado, definición, qué es day of reckoning: 1. a time when the effect of a past mistake is experienced or when a crime is punished 2. a time…. In a world of multiple stranded assets, Europe’s markets, like real estate is all about location, location, location. The key factor in the resilience of US shale oil production has been the continuation of funding. Definitions by the largest Idiom Dictionary. As long as oil prices stay above half cycle costs there is an incentive to keep on drilling, in order to minimise losses. Meanwhile, Europeans continue to burn coal because they think fracking is dangerous! Technically , long horizontals work offshore Qatar, Sakhalin and Wytch Farm. The key question is whether the next phase of loan extensions and reserve redeterminations in April 2016 will be as lenient as the preceding one in October 2015. But in the long…, Today, Zach Scheidt explains how to play the most recent rally in oil prices, and uses a real-life story to explain his…, Today, Zach Scheidt explains the strong trends emerging in today’s hotel industry, and gives his top three stocks to buy…, Why the marijuana market is about to get a major shot in the arm…, “We’re on the ground floor of a momentous trend that’s only beginning to get traction — and the profit opportunities from investing…. Overall the financial state of the US shale oil industry is much worse than the resilience of production would lead us to believe. I don’t think so! It’s mad to buy high carbon low tax gas from someone else, but whoever’s gas or oil it is, it will be lower not for longer, but most likely forever. The glass is half-full Jilles, not half-empty! The day of reckoning will come. Learn more. Bill Bonner on why deficits don’t matter — until they do…, Bill Bonner By Bill Bonner Posted August 20, 2017, Out with the old gods and in with the new. It shows operators where to frack vertical wells and where to drill horizontal wells. Find out why the real story Wall Street is…, The Wall Street Journal wags a finger at China…, Trump will win reelection this year. This site contains up-to-date information about the shale oil production in the major shale oil basins in the US, and production can be split out for different operators/counties/formations. Of course I see the benefits of shale oil and gas for the US. Thanks for your response and the link to an interesting WP paper. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. April 4, 2016 09:31 AM [node:field_image:alt] #1. Bankruptcies and asset fire sales are in no one’s interest in the current low oil price world. By The Mast on April 17, 2018 In every life, there comes a day of reckoning – a time when unsettled scores demand … I would classify the billions of dollars US taxpayers spend every day to facilitate global energy security by, among other things, ensuring the Suez Canal remains open, as ‘substantive’, I have no idea whether you, Aloysius, are contributing towards global energy security in the form of blood or treasure; however judging by the fact that you have also overlooked this important factor, I’m guessing you don’t, Jilles presents a compelling view and even though it seemed to me that he had a set agenda from the first graff, I’d rather not side-track the feedback and commentary with petty sniping, If my criticism was perceived to be gratuitous, I hope that you will come to see that it was meant to be constructive – focus on what I wrote, not how I wrote it and I in turn will try going forward to avoid making what you described as a ‘personal attack’. Somehow, I have lost that in my 30 years in the industry. Shale oil producers and investors have managed to postpone the day of reckoning, but the fundamentals of the industry make a shake-out inevitable. "You’d think in the next few months that the day of reckoning will come when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will decide whether he is the Manchester United number one of the future.” But that is not an easy call to make. [Intense drilling at increasingly smaller distances implies that wells increasingly interfere with each other.] Energy independence. Stroopwafels and Chocolade Hagelslag are fine. Here’s what’s hiding in plain sight and…, Donald Trump’s positioning has put the U.S military one step closer to the next phase of the Korean War. THE FALL OF HAYDER NATION! Given your analysis and the US experience, what are the prospects of fracking here in Europe? Hence the tendency to be rather lenient regarding loan extensions. papa johns day of reckoning will come - Duration: 0:36. Two different sets of factors come into play here. From a peak of 5.6 mb/d in March 2015, shale oil production had fallen by no more than 0.6 mb/d by the year end. Ranges for the other plays are not markedly different. T As a result, it takes many wells before sweet spots (which may be the only places where commercial production can take place) can be located with some confidence. It’s not true. And even if regulators let them: will the current situation start to undermine trust in financial institutions? http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/New-Fracking-Technology-To-Bring-Huge-Supplies-Of-Oil-And-Gas-To-The-Market.html, I agree with Seth – as I read this article an image of the author took shape in my mind: a continental European wearing sandals with a pony-tail etc, This image was virtually confirmed when I read the editor’s note, that jilles had resigned to become a freelance traveler,…, Meanwhile the strategic benefits to the USA of not being reliant on OPEC producing nations that so openly hate this country are condicuously absent – possibly because such a positive outcome is inconceivable to anyone living in Europe. Like other industries that involve oft repeated processes, the shale oil industry has become very efficient at this. Behold--how speedily and swiftly they come! I think the shale oil play will implode sooner than we expect and the seemingly va quashed notion of peak oil will be at the top of the news by 2010. The average high yield US energy bond has slid to 56 cents on the dollar. 3. "The day of reckoning will come" Wessex is safe for now, but King Alfred warns of a new threat beyond its borders. Activities in poorer producing areas have been much reduced or stopped. It is in the financiers’ interest to continue and aim for a soft landing once oil prices pick up. Some will go bankrupt; those that survive will not do so without substantial pain for their shareholders and bankers. Problems can often be solved by looking at them from a slightly different perspective, and the best technology now coming out of the US can help. Jim Rickards’ analysis…, By Addison Wiggin Posted September 4, 2020. Both shale oil producers and their financiers are trying to sit out the current low oil price world. Part 2. Even in the 2010-2014 high oil price world, however, most US shale oil producers were already cash flow negative. After a prolonged period of cut-throat competition between service providers this second set now seems to have reached a plateau as well. February 21, 2021 By REVOLVE Leave a Comment, February 21, 2021 By Ben Paulos Leave a Comment, February 4, 2021 By marineieecp Leave a Comment, January 27, 2021 By marineieecp Leave a Comment, Copyright © 2021 Energy Post. Oil prices this low will contribute to making 2016 a much more difficult year for shale oil producers than 2015. These assets are worth much less, however, in the current low oil price world. When The Third Bubble Pops, The Day of Reckoning Will Come [Ed Note: Our friend David Stockman took to CNBC’s airwaves yesterday.Here’s his full interview…] Day of reckoning - Idioms by The Free Dictionary. Can we better delineate sweet spots with seismic methods? Global supply is only expected to become in line with demand in 2017/2018 as the drastic investment cuts in non shale oil take time to materially affect supply. Apart from higher costs and lower well recoveries at the time, this was primarily due to the money spent on acquiring leases and building infrastructure. Hundreds of wells are needed to properly evaluate the play. He lifts a banner for the distant nations and whistles for those at the ends of the earth. Worldwide the level of debt of the energy industry stands at a record high of $2.5 trillion at a time that the value of assets backing these loans stands at a record low. The key to success therefore is finding the sweet spots, with systematically higher EUR’s. Now, what will happen next? Note: Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics from every possible angle. Video Posted January 30, 2015, [Ed Note: Our friend David Stockman took to CNBC’s airwaves yesterday.